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“Paxlovid Rebound” Is Just COVID Rebound

1 December 2022 by Gertrud U. Rey

by Gertrud U. Rey

Image Credit: Dreamstime

The antiviral drug Paxlovid is highly effective at inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 replication and reducing symptoms associated with COVID-19. Nevertheless, there have recently been numerous reports of recurrence of positive tests and symptoms after completing treatment with Paxlovid, leading some to infer that the drug triggers the recurrence. Is this inference actually correct, or would the recurrences happen regardless of treatment? In other words, is “Paxlovid rebound” really just COVID rebound?

Most studies aiming to address this question have been retrospective analyses, which use existing data collected from events that have already happened. A major disadvantage of examining data retrospectively is that it is impossible to randomly assign participants to experimental or control groups, or to even apply the proper controls as is typically done in a prospective study. These drawbacks often lead to a biased selection of participants such that they do not always represent the population that is intended to be analyzed, which leads to inaccurate results and false conclusions.

In an attempt to remedy this shortcoming, a group of investigators led by Michael Mina carried out a prospective study in which they compared the outcomes between two groups of COVID-19 patients: a group of 127 subjects who chose to be treated with Paxlovid and a control group of 43 subjects who chose not to be treated. The aim of the study was to determine whether Paxlovid recipients experience a higher incidence of rebounds than non-treated individuals.

To qualify for the study, all participants had to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 using a rapid antigen test. The day of the first test was then documented as day 0 and the participants continued testing themselves and recording their symptoms on days 2, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, and 17 of the study period. Any positive antigen test after a negative test within the 17-day period was defined as a viral rebound, and any recurrence of symptoms after initial symptom clearance within the same period was defined as a symptom rebound. At the 17-day time point, among the Paxlovid group, 14% of subjects had experienced a viral rebound and 19% had experienced a symptom rebound. In contrast, only 9% of subjects in the (untreated) control group had a viral rebound and only 7% had a symptom rebound. There were no noteworthy differences in the number of rebounds between the two groups at the one-month time point. Although the incidence of rebound was slightly higher in the Paxlovid group, this difference between the two groups was not statistically significant; it was likely due to random chance and the small sample sizes of the groups. In other words, the slightly higher incidence of viral and symptom rebounds in the Paxlovid group has no clinical meaning, and one can interpret the rate of rebounds between the Paxlovid and control groups to be similar, meaning that Paxlovid probably does not cause viral and/or symptom rebounds.

The authors thoughtfully note that the study has several limitations. First, the overall sample size of 170 participants is small and there was a large difference between the sizes of the two groups (i.e., 127 subjects in the Paxlovid group and 43 subjects in the control group). Large and balanced sample sizes are critical for reducing the margin of error and for obtaining results that are both accurate and clinically useful. Second, the participants tested themselves, which could have introduced unknown errors such as whether the tests were carried out properly or at the correct time. Third, participants were asked to only test every other day to ensure compliance; however, daily testing would have provided additional data points and more comprehensive findings. Larger surveys done under more controlled and standardized conditions are needed to validate the results obtained in this study.

In contrast to popular opinion, rebounds can happen after most viral infections, so there is nothing unique about SARS-CoV-2 in this regard. Even if Paxlovid does cause viral and/or symptom recurrence in a small subset of people, a preponderance of the evidence indicates that early treatment with Paxlovid results in an overwhelming reduction in hospitalization and death for COVID-19 patients. Understanding the underlying mechanisms leading to rebounds can help guide practitioners to modify timing and length of treatment with Paxlovid or other antiviral drugs to reduce the incidence of rebound.

Filed Under: Basic virology, Gertrud Rey Tagged With: antiviral, antiviral drug, COVID rebound, COVID-19, Michael Mina, Paxlovid, Paxlovid rebound, prospective study, rapid antigen test, rebound, retrospective study, SARS-CoV-2, symptom rebound, viral rebound

How to End this Pandemic

6 August 2020 by Gertrud U. Rey

by Gertrud U. Rey

As of today, SARS-CoV-2 has infected 18.7 million people and caused 700,000 deaths worldwide. The most realistic way to quickly curb the spread of the virus would require daily identification and isolation of individuals who are contagious, a process that is hampered by cumbersome sampling and testing methods with slow turnaround times. 

The predominant test for diagnosing SARS-CoV-2 infection is a highly sensitive assay called quantitative Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (qRT-PCR). To carry out a SARS-CoV-2 qRT-PCR test, a mucus sample is processed to inactivate virus particles and extract the viral RNA. The RNA is converted to DNA (the reverse transcription step), which is then amplified during the polymerase chain reaction portion of the assay. For amplification to occur, a small piece of DNA (a primer) binds to a complementary target sequence in the SARS-CoV-2 DNA, while another piece of DNA (a probe) attaches to a sequence downstream of the primer binding site. Binding of the primer initiates amplification of the target DNA by an enzyme called polymerase, which copies the DNA in one direction towards the probe. Once the polymerase reaches the probe, it cleaves it, which activates a fluorescent marker attached to the probe. The use of this fluorescent probe allows for monitoring of the fluorescent signal quantitatively in real time rather than just detecting an accumulated end product. 

While the qRT-PCR test is very sensitive, it also has multiple limitations. It requires expensive laboratory instrumentation and trained technicians with an estimated cost of about $100 per test, meaning that most people probably only get tested once. Current testing capacities are limited and results often take days or weeks to return, meaning that individuals who don’t know they are infected can transmit the virus during this time. The high sensitivity of qRT-PCR may also be a drawback rather than an advantage, because the test often detects small fragments of RNA that don’t originate from whole virus particles and thus don’t represent transmissible virus. Such RNA fragments can persist in individuals for weeks and months. As illustrated in Figure 1, infection with SARS-CoV-2 usually results in high initial levels of viral replication that peak and begin to decline within a few days. Symptoms don’t usually appear until after that peak has already occurred, and, because most people don’t get tested until they experience symptoms, they are likely already on the downward slope of viral replication and no longer infectious at the time of testing. In the meantime, they have been unknowingly transmitting the virus to others for several days. Clearly, these people need to be identified and isolated during their period of high infectivity.

In late June, Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina published a preprint that evaluates the effectiveness of current SARS-CoV-2 surveillance measures for reducing transmission when considering frequency of testing and delayed reporting of results. Mina and co-authors concluded that infrequent testing with an ultra-sensitive test like qRT-PCR often results in unnecessary quarantine of individuals who are no longer infectious. Notably, it also results in missing pre- or asymptomatic individuals who are at the beginning of their infection and thus highly contagious, allowing them to go about their daily routines and infect others. 

A few days after publication of the preprint, Mina co-authored an opinion article in the New York Times in which he discussed the potential for controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by widespread use of frequent, rapid at-home diagnostic tests. One example of such a diagnostic test is a lateral flow device, which is a paper strip that works similarly to a pregnancy test. The strip has a sample pad on one end and contains antibodies that recognize SARS-CoV-2 antigens. One would dip the sample pad portion of the strip into a sample of saliva and allow the saliva to wick across the strip. The presence of SARS-CoV-2 antigens in the saliva would be indicated by the appearance of a test line in addition to the control line, while a negative test would only indicate the control line (Figure 2). The test provides results in 10-15 minutes at a cost of about $1-2 per test and does not require any additional equipment. A positive result would indicate the need for self-quarantine and confirmation of test results through a doctor’s office. 

Although these rapid tests are only about half as sensitive as qRT-PCR tests, they detect the presence of viral antigen during the actual window of transmissibility when viral levels are very high. The highly sensitive qRT-PCR assays detect viral RNA for weeks after a patient is no longer transmitting virus, which is irrelevant for quarantine/isolation purposes and does nothing to curb transmission. A less sensitive test that is done on a daily basis and provides immediate results would be more valuable because it would identify individuals while they are actually infectious. This would also alleviate the need for costly contact tracing measures because most infected individuals would be aware of their status and would stay isolated during their period of transmission. 

Rapid lateral flow SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic tests are already available, but there is concern that the FDA may not approve these products because of their low sensitivity. You can help bring these products to market by writing to your elected officials (see sample letter templates here), contacting your local TV and radio stations, and telling your friends and family to do the same. Hopefully, with sufficient media attention, the FDA, CDC, and NIH will recognize the value of these tests and make them widely available to the public. This may be the ultimate solution for opening schools and workplaces, and for rebuilding the economy. 

[Michael Mina discussed rapid at-home SARS-CoV-2 testing options on TWiV 640. Tidbits of that episode were also reviewed on MedCram.]

Filed Under: Gertrud Rey Tagged With: coronavirus, COVID-19, Michael Mina, pandemic, rapid antigen test, saliva, SARS-CoV-2, viral, virology, virus, viruses

TWiV 640: Test often, fast turnaround, with Michael Mina

18 July 2020 by Vincent Racaniello

Michael Mina joins TWiV to reveal why frequent and rapid SARS-CoV-2 testing is more important than accuracy, how a daily $1 rapid test could control the pandemic, and why group testing works.

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Download TWiV 640 (63 MB .mp3, 104 min)
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Intro music is by Ronald Jenkees

Show notes at microbe.tv/twiv

Filed Under: This Week in Virology Tagged With: COVID-19, Ct, diagnostic test, dipstick test, group testing, pandemic, PCR, rapid antigen test, SARS-CoV-2, viral, virology, virus, viruses

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