TWiV 69: They’re all safecrackers

7 February 2010

Hosts: Vincent Racaniello, Alan Dove, and Rich Condit

Vincent, Alan, and Rich review recent outbreaks of mumps in the UK, US, and Israel, protection of mice against 2009 H1N1 influenza A virus by 1918-like and classical swine H1N1 vaccines, and a virus-like particle vaccine for chikungunya virus.

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Rich John Moran Florida Nature Photography
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  • gsgs

    > Immunization with 1918-like and classical swine H1N1 influenza viruses
    > protects against 2009 H1N1 strain

    that were mice. And they got whole virus vaccine with booster.
    1976 was split vaccine, HA only, I think.

  • BrianHanley

    Core of a letter to Caplan, Rosling and a few others about Wakefield.

    “I feel that I must point out that the data I looked at today does not support the contention Wakefield did a lot of damage relative to measles mortality. In fact, this paradoxical data I find interesting enough to suggest that a deeper study of Wakefield's impact on child mortality is in order.

    From 1998-2008 (the year of the study, to last year of easily available stats) there have been 11 deaths from measles in the UK, which is one of the higher vaccine-refusal nations. In the 10 years prior to the publication by Wakefield, (1987-1997) there were 37 deaths from measles in the UK. (Best estimates for 2009 are 1 death. Adding 1 more year to the pre-Wakefield stats would raise the total to 47 deaths in the UK prior to Wakefield's study.) A factor of 3 reduction in the decade following his publication versus the decade prior does not suggest causality. Source: http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard

    Wakefield paper ^ 1998

    That does not square with the idea that Dr. Wakefield's study created measles deaths. I think he is quite wrong, but it appears it may be more wrong to blame him for excess deaths in children from measles. These data suggest to me that there may have been no significant impact at all, and perhaps an effect inverse to the one Dr. Wakefield espoused.

    I question the idea that Dr. Wakefield kicked off the anti-vaccine movement which was well established circa 1985. I am well aware of this because my sister was a believer, and refused to vaccinate her children who were born in that time period. We did not agree on this question.

    This data, while admittedly partial, does suggest the possibility that in practice, the opposite net effect from that of Dr. Wakefield's intent may have been true.

    (Can't post the graph unfortunately.)

  • BrianHanley

    Core of a letter to Caplan, Rosling and a few others about Wakefield.

    “I feel that I must point out that the data I looked at today does not support the contention Wakefield did a lot of damage relative to measles mortality. In fact, this paradoxical data I find interesting enough to suggest that a deeper study of Wakefield's impact on child mortality is in order.

    From 1998-2008 (the year of the study, to last year of easily available stats) there have been 11 deaths from measles in the UK, which is one of the higher vaccine-refusal nations. In the 10 years prior to the publication by Wakefield, (1987-1997) there were 37 deaths from measles in the UK. (Best estimates for 2009 are 1 death. Adding 1 more year to the pre-Wakefield stats would raise the total to 47 deaths in the UK prior to Wakefield's study.) A factor of 3 reduction in the decade following his publication versus the decade prior does not suggest causality. Source: http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard

    Wakefield paper ^ 1998

    That does not square with the idea that Dr. Wakefield's study created measles deaths. I think he is quite wrong, but it appears it may be more wrong to blame him for excess deaths in children from measles. These data suggest to me that there may have been no significant impact at all, and perhaps an effect inverse to the one Dr. Wakefield espoused.

    I question the idea that Dr. Wakefield kicked off the anti-vaccine movement which was well established circa 1985. I am well aware of this because my sister was a believer, and refused to vaccinate her children who were born in that time period. We did not agree on this question.

    This data, while admittedly partial, does suggest the possibility that in practice, the opposite net effect from that of Dr. Wakefield's intent may have been true.

    (Can't post the graph unfortunately.)

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