Comments on: Swine influenza, seasonality, and the northern hemisphere

By: Everyday Citizen

Everyday Citizen — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:38:56 +0000

H1N1 Vaccination Hysteria Part 1: Is the Swine Flu Vaccine Safe?…

Many people are rightly concerned about their health and the health of their family. Yet, we get so many messages that warn us to beware of vaccines or of the science behind them as if there are battalions of faceless sinister people in lab coats who w…

By: profvrr

profvrr — Mon, 04 May 2009 08:37:21 +0000

There are plenty of good data from the southern hemisphere, from
places such as Australia, which has very good reporting, and some
other countries. So no, we are not drawing conclusions on grossly
incomplete data.

I answered Dave's question directly on the blog the other day - I take
many of the questions posted in comments and answer them in blog
posts. In this way they are seen by more people.

By: Skeptigal

Skeptigal — Mon, 04 May 2009 06:39:05 +0000

While we have data on influenza epidemics and pandemics in the Northern hemisphere, and some data on the early pattern of pandemics before they reached the Northern hemisphere, what has been the quality of the total surveillance data in the Southern hemisphere in the last century? Are we not drawing conclusions based on grossly incomplete data?

And any chance we could get an answer to Dave's question?

By: profvrr

profvrr — Mon, 04 May 2009 01:37:21 +0000

By: Skeptigal

Skeptigal — Sun, 03 May 2009 23:39:05 +0000

And any chance we could get an answer to Dave's question?

By: Perhaps the pestilence gods are with us! [Gene Expression]

Perhaps the pestilence gods are with us! [Gene Expression] — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 07:00:23 +0000

[...] Swine influenza, seasonality, and the northern hemisphere: This history demonstrates the seasonality of pandemic influenza, and suggesta that spread of A/California/09/2009 in the northern hemisphere is not imminent. Based on this regularity, the epidemic in Mexico should be over no later than the end of May. While it is not ‘impossible to see the current contagion spreading in the northern hemisphere over the following months’, it would be unprecedented. [...]

By: Dave

Dave — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 01:28:54 +0000

I'm having some trouble reconciling these three statements:

- "The flu season in the northern hemisphere is between January and April, although infections have been observed in December and May."

- "At the end of August 1918 a more virulent H1N1 virus emerged which caused high mortality (2.5% in the US, compared to 0.1% for typical influenza). The disease peaked in September and November."

- "This history demonstrates the seasonality of pandemic influenza, and suggests that spread of A/California/09/2009 in the northern hemisphere is not imminent. Based on this regularity, the epidemic in Mexico should be over no later than the end of May. While it is not ‘impossible to see the current contagion spreading in the northern hemisphere over the following months’, it would be unprecedented."

Am I missing something? How can a summer pandemic be unprecedented? You cited a pretty famous example of one. In fact nearly all of your examples seem to have occurred partly or mostly "out of season".